Japanorama

[caucasoididiot]

Yeah, that hadn't even occurred to me before TK mentioned it, but then I was noticing "Tokyo Disneyland" constantly trending in Yahoo!'s list. I suppose you can't blame folks, but it does seem insensitive.

Heh heh . . . when I asked Yuuto where he was when it happened, his answer was, "Outside." He seems to be fine, talking about it all like a big adventure. Thankfully, his region was shaken up badly but without much in the way of actual damage.

[caucasoididiot]

This clip is Tepco President Shimizu offering apologies for the deep concern the company's reactor problems have caused the nation.

This is a really typical thing any company does in the wake of a problem. As an American, I've always found it an interesting ritual and sometimes regret that we don't really have anything quite like it.

www.fnn-news.com/news/headlines/articles/CONN00195044.html

They also announced rolling blackouts due to the loss of capacity.

[caucasoididiot]

In cruising about the net, trying to keep tabs on the situation--particularly nuclear--I'm running into some things that seem alarmist.

I have seen reports claiming that some people in the area have been diagnosed with radiation poisoning. This, however, seems to be a wild exaggeration based on anything from Tepco, METI, IAEA or anyone on the scene. The highest dose I've seen reported was that of a plant worker who got 0.106 Sv.

Here is a chart of rad sickness symptoms related to exposure. Note that its lowest entry is 1~2 Sv, at which symptoms are mild if they occur at all.

The dose received by the worker is considered an acceptable risk in an accident scenario, essentially meaning that it would be considered unacceptable normally but is considered safe enough in extremis. The US NRC places the acceptable annual dose for a rad worker under normal conditions at 0.05 Sv, for the general public at 0.01 Sv (which is about the dose from a CT scan).

Note that these are specifically related to industrial exposure. Typically in the US, a person will annually receive 0.005 Sv from medical diagnostic procedures and 0.03 Sv from natural background.

So, while the peak rate of 0.001 Sv/hr at the Fukushima Daiichi site was way above where it should have been, it's less than the 0.005 Sv/hr associated with flying in an airplane at 39,000'.

While long-term effects from low doses are a controversial topic, they really are the drivers of those numbers. Doses for acute rad sickness are far higher. The site I took several of these figures from lists 0.0125 Sv as associated with a 1/1000 cancer risk.

The only figures I've seen on the evacuees in the area were given in counts per minute, which is actually a measure of contamination rather than exposure. It's impossible to even estimate the corresponding exposure rates without figures I can't scare up. Just for ballpark comparison, the highest count reported among them was 100,000 cpm (dropping to 40,000 cpm after the person removed their shoes) compared to 240,000 cpm of activity resulting from the decay of potassium-40 in a standard human body.

So, please don't think I'm pooh-poohing the potential problem in the slightest, or the heartache that those exposed must feel for themselves and their children, but to date the actual problem is not a major one.

I just hope I haven't jinxed the situation with this post. (;-_-)

Edit:
One of those sites is using the older REM unit for exposure. 1 Sv = 100 REM

Also, the decay heat issue on the plants remains key. How quickly it goes away depends on how long the reactor was in steady operation. It's down to 41% of initial one day after shutdown for a reactor that's been running 1 month, 10% in two weeks. Those factors go up to 58% and 22% for a reactor in continuous operation for 1 year. I have nowhere seen the actual figures for the reactors in question, but looking at their operational histories on the IAEA website that's probably the ballpark. Even yesterday, informed commentators were saying that the heat was probably low enough that the reactor vessels themselves should be pretty safe. They could certainly be wrong, and explosions are still a definite worry, but the headlines I see in the English language media seem more alarmist than the situation warrants.

[ilmatto]

I can't mentally convert all of that bequerel and sievert stuff. Back 15 years ago or so when I was a radworker it was all RAD and REM.

[caucasoididiot]

Yeah, I'm actually more familiar with REM myself, from looking at all the old bomb effects studies. LD 50/30 (lethal dose, 50% fatality within 30 days) is usually listed as 400~450 REM.

So, what were you doing back then? Also, what's the Japanese media saying on this? What prompted this post was seeing how the English headlines make it look like disaster is moments away, but I don't seem to be getting that sense from the Japanese.

[ilmatto]

Mar 13, 2011 18:46:37 GMT -5 @caucasoididiot said:

So, what were you doing back then? Also, what's the Japanese media saying on this? What prompted this post was seeing how the English headlines make it look like disaster is moments away, but I don't seem to be getting that sense from the Japanese.

I don't think the local media is downplaying the situation. They are evacuating the areas, now I think they are up to a 20km radius (!!!!) and the situation is being reported 24 hours a day; all programming is pre-empted, I've never seen anything like it.
I'm not going to report any details because I will just get it wrong, and the situation is so dynamic and changing faster than I can write it down. MSNBC.com has good coverage.

[caucasoididiot]

Yeah, the problem with being all over the net to follow it is trying to pull what you find together coherently, especially now that a couple of days worth of reportage have stacked up.

Just talked to my wife again. She doesn't seem too concerned about the nuke plants (though she also used to say that an emergency radio and flashlight were needless expenses, so who knows?). She can't go to work because of the trains, and when I asked her if the building where she worked was OK she said she hoped it would fall down. (^_^)

[ilmatto]

Here is what the US Embassy just emailed to me:


March 14, 2011 09:30
1. The Department of State alerts U.S. citizens to the situation in Japan in the aftermath of the powerful earthquake, measuring 8.9 magnitude, that struck northern Japan on March 11. U.S. citizens should avoid travel to Japan at this time. This Travel Alert supersedes the Travel Alert for Japan dated March 13, 2011, to provide updated information on planned power outages, the evacuation of areas near nuclear power facilities in Fukushima, and the likelihood of further aftershocks and tsunamis. This Travel Alert expires on April 1, 2011.

2. The Department of State requests all non-emergency official U.S. government personnel defer travel to Japan and urges U.S. citizens to avoid tourism and non- essential travel to Japan at this time. Temporary shortages of water and food supplies may occur in affected areas of Japan due to power and transportation disruptions. Telephone services have also been disrupted in affected areas; where possible, you may be able to contact family members using text message or social media such as Facebook or Twitter.

3. Flights have resumed at all airports that were closed by the earthquake, except Sendai, Sado, Iwate- Hanamaki, and Misawa Airports. In Tokyo, trains and subways are operating on limited schedules due to rolling blackouts that started Monday morning. Many roads have been damaged in the Tokyo area and in northern Japan, particularly in the Miyagi prefecture where government checkpoints have been established on damaged roadways. In Iwate Prefecture, toll road highways are restricted to emergency vehicles only.

4. U.S. citizens currently in Japan should be aware that rolling power outages are scheduled for the Tokyo Metropolitan area and in northern and central Honshu. Tokyo Electric Company reports that three-hour outages may occur in various regions, including Tokyo, starting the morning of Monday, March 14. Please monitor the Tokyo Electric Power Company website, www.tepco.co.jp/en/index-e.html, and local news media for specific information and schedules for the planned outages. Radio stations in the Tokyo area that have emergency information in English include the U.S. Armed Forces station at 810AM and InterFM (76.1FM).

5. The Japan Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) has recommended that people who live within 20 kilometers of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant in Okumacho evacuate the area immediately. Japanese authorities have confirmed that the situation remains serious. U.S. citizens residing or traveling in Fukushima Prefecture should follow NISA instructions to evacuate and comply with Japanese government personnel on the ground. More information on the status of the nuclear facilities and on areas affected by power outages is available on NISA's website, www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english. You can find more information on radiation emergencies from the Centers for Disease Control Emergency Preparedness and Response' website at www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation.

6. Strong aftershocks are likely for weeks following a massive earthquake such as this one. The American Red Cross recommends that in the event of aftershocks, persons should move to open spaces away from walls, windows, buildings, and other structures that may collapse, and should be alert to the danger of falling debris. If you are indoors, DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON: If possible, seek cover under a sturdy \desk or table, hold on, and protect your eyes by pressing your face against your arm. If there is no table or desk nearby, sit on the floor against an interior wall away from windows, bookcases or tall furniture that could fall on you. Avoid damaged buildings and downed power lines. Great care should be used with matches, lighters, candles, or any open flame due to the possibility of disrupted gas lines.

7. Due to the continuing possibility of strong aftershocks, Japan remains at risk for further tsunamis. Japanese authorities have issued a warning for people to stay away from low-lying coastal areas. If a tsunami alert is issued by Japanese authorities, evacuate immediately to higher ground. Further information about what you can do if a tsunami occurs can be found at the National Weather Service's TsunamiReady website,http://www.tsunamiready.noaa.gov, and the International Tsunami Information Center's website, itic.ioc-unesco.org. Current tsunami alerts can be found at the Japan Meteorological Agency website, ww.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/, and the website of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, ptwc.weather.gov.

8. U.S. citizens in Japan should contact family and friends in the United States to confirm their well-being at the earliest opportunity. Where internet and telephone services are not available, it may be possible to contact people using SMS (Cell text message) or other forms of social media such as Twitter and Facebook. U.S. citizens requiring emergency consular assistance may contact the Department of State at [e-mail] and the emergency contact numbers below.

9. U.S. citizens in Japan are encouraged to enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at the following website: travelregistration.state.gov. U.S. citizens without internet access may enroll directly at the U.S. Embassy or U.S. Consulates. By enrolling, U.S. citizens make it easier for the Embassy/Consulates to contact them in case of emergency.

10. Updated information on travel and security in Japan may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll-free in the United States and Canada or, for callers outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. For further information, please consult the Country Specific Information for Japan, as well as the Worldwide Caution, which can be found at www.travel.state.gov.

[ilmatto]

Good video of the NHK broadcast early warning, and you can hear the chaos in the NHK newsroom when the earthquake reaches Tokyo:

[caucasoididiot]

Wow, that is an illustrative one. Thanks.

I was in the Loma Prieta quake, which many people described as going on and on forever. The thing is, most of that was the time-stretching effect of their adrenal rush. I had happened to be in a building where the floor above was being renovated, and had interpreted the initial p-wave as a power tool. I didn't get the adrenal rush until the s-wave hit, and everything was over before I could get the time-stretching effect. But that shows this quake really did involve prolonged shaking.

[caucasoididiot]

It's really welcome news that Fukushima Daiichi unit 3 is now in cold shutdown. Hopefully they're on the road to getting the others under control as well.

I was just sitting here, realizing how exhausting it's been even keeping track of this from a position of safety and comfort. I can only imagine how the folks who have spent the last few days in relocation centers, short on supplies and with constant aftershocks, must be feeling.

頑張れ、日本。


Edit:
Looks like I misread the report, it's unit 3 at Fukushima Daini that's in cold shutdown, not Daiichi. Well, that is still good news, if not as good.

[caucasoididiot]

Boy, some disasters just keep on giving, don't they? Now we've had a magnitude 6 quake in Shizuoka, a pretty solid whack in its own right. Thankfully, initial reports are that there appear to be no fatalities.

And the nuclear situation remains grave. I know the outside releases so far reported aren't excessive, I know Yuuto is a long way from Fukushima, I know the prevailing winds would be away from him . . . and I also know the effects radio-isotopes of iodine, cesium and strontium can have on a growing boy. It gives me a sensation in the knees.

I've been lucky so far in that I haven't had to teach any lessons since this started. Might be interesting for my students today, "Gracie Allen: English Teacher."

But so far my family seems to be doing OK, with nothing worse than rolling blackouts and no bananas to contend with. Would that every Japanese family had it so good today.

[caucasoididiot]

While sitting here waiting for the next shoe to drop--the term "shoe tree" leaps to mind--I try to remain open to the lighter moments.

I was just listening to NPR in the car, and announcer Neil Conan struggling with a wad of Japanese names both among his guests and the people and places in the report. He got so tangled that he ended up mis-pronouncing his own name. (^_^)

[ilmatto]

I worked part-time at a TV sales/repair shop when I was in college and it's hard to believe I used to struggle to figure out how to pronounce something like "Matsush ita".

The first time I made this post, it came out as "Matsupoopiea".

[caucasoididiot]

Don't you hate that? I do it Matsush(i)ta.

Do you still find yourself occasionally coming across some word familiar from before but not one you use regularly, and are momentarily confused whether to pronounce it the American or Japanese way? I ran into that with things like historical ship names that come from places, like Mogami.