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Post by wanderer on Nov 29, 2015 7:23:28 GMT -5
I think part of the problem is there's essentially no big backer reward levels left. They've all been bought up. For someone to pitch in 5k, 10k, 15k dollars (sadly Kickstarter doesn't allow more than that), while the act itself is great, everyone enjoys getting some nice unique and special rewards in return. At this point, I know if I was willing to put in 10k, but there wasn't any available top tier rewards left, I probably wouldn't do it. It's no one's fault really, just that they weren't there soon enough to back and get one of the limited rewards spot. There are some high costing things available, but it doesn't look like people want them. As I write theses are available. 1 Left - 9999 - EXPERIMENT 9999: A PRIVATE DATE WITH YOUR (MST3K) FAMILY 6 Left - 7777 - EXPERIMENT 7777: INVENTION EXCHANGE 1 Left - 7500 - EXPERIMENT 7500: ...BUT I REALLY WANT TO PLAN. 1 Left - 6500 - EXPERIMENT 6500: SHE STOLE MIKE'S KEYBOARD! 1 Left - 6000 - EXPERIMENT 6000: OPERATION DOUBLE DOUBLE (007) 9 Left - 2500 - EXPERIMENT 2500: A DATE WITH YOUR (MST3K) FAMILY
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Post by jasoncinema on Nov 29, 2015 7:46:27 GMT -5
Just thought I'd mention that in addition to its own Turkey Day channel that's reairing the marathon all weekend, Shout! Factory TV is streaming a marathon of the show right now.
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Post by BoB3K on Nov 29, 2015 13:01:10 GMT -5
Three Episodes: $2,000 Six Episodes: $94,000 Twelve Episodes: $186,000 NEW!!! Average Per Day: $172,000 (DOES include mst3k.com's income) I decided to bring in a per day average to give everyone and idea as to how we're doing in relation to each goal. So far we're pretty solid and nine episodes seems like a safe lock. We're a bit under what we need to get to twelve episodes. I have to disagree with this. While your average is an accurate calculation, it's probably nowhere close to an accurate prediction. You really need to remove the first day, and maybe even the second, because after the other mini bumps and the turnout from Turkey Day, it is obvious that those two days were a one time thing. (They do this all the time in accounting for big one time expenses or incomes.) Taking away the first two days, the average is closer to $105,000. And I think even that is going to drop much further in the next week, as I don't see any more bumps coming other than the last 48 hr run. I think that the six eps is a lock, and the 9 eps is going to be the realistic reach-for-it goal and the 12 eps is just not going to happen.
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Post by jaybird3rd on Nov 29, 2015 13:20:42 GMT -5
Taking away the first two days, the average is closer to $105,000. And I think even that is going to drop much further in the next week, as I don't see any more bumps coming other than the last 48 hr run. You don't think we'll get another bump when the new Henchman is introduced? All the other casting announcements have given us some kind of bump, either right away or stretched out over the following days. The way Joel saved this one for last makes me think it's a big one. There's also additional episode sales, and as I've said before, Joel's KTMA episode announcement (if that's what he has planned) will also help to pull in MSTies who aren't invested in the new show. I'm sure Joel still has a few other cards to play.
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Torgo
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Post by Torgo on Nov 29, 2015 13:59:27 GMT -5
Three Episodes: $2,000 Six Episodes: $94,000 Twelve Episodes: $186,000 NEW!!! Average Per Day: $172,000 (DOES include mst3k.com's income) I decided to bring in a per day average to give everyone and idea as to how we're doing in relation to each goal. So far we're pretty solid and nine episodes seems like a safe lock. We're a bit under what we need to get to twelve episodes. I have to disagree with this. While your average is an accurate calculation, it's probably nowhere close to an accurate prediction. You really need to remove the first day, and maybe even the second, because after the other mini bumps and the turnout from Turkey Day, it is obvious that those two days were a one time thing. (They do this all the time in accounting for big one time expenses or incomes.) Taking away the first two days, the average is closer to $105,000. And I think even that is going to drop much further in the next week, as I don't see any more bumps coming other than the last 48 hr run. I think that the six eps is a lock, and the 9 eps is going to be the realistic reach-for-it goal and the 12 eps is just not going to happen. I in turn am going to disagree with your disagreement. Ultimately any sort of prediction can be inaccurate and not including the first two days is a discredit to those backers themselves. And while your way of doing it is fine for the mid portion of the Kickstarter, considering we're starting the final third and there's a huge spike in activity in the final days, I feel like mine is more favorable for the endgame, where we'll see numbers closer to the first two days (more the second than the first). So I'm going to stick with what I got.
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Post by mylungswereaching on Nov 29, 2015 15:19:42 GMT -5
I'm kind of in the middle. We're almost certainly going to get 6 episodes. Nine episodes is very achievable but not certain. Twelve is unlikely but possible. To get to 12 you either have to have a really big jump with the announcement of the new mad or one or more really really big donors, like someone giving a million dollars.
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Post by Shark on Nov 29, 2015 16:03:30 GMT -5
I think we're going to fall short of the twelve via Kickstarter, but I think we'll get them all anyway...
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Torgo
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Post by Torgo on Nov 29, 2015 16:27:51 GMT -5
What I'm bearing in mind is that we don't know what the final week will bring. If Joel is as enticing as Reading Rainbow was (though RR admittedly aimed at the Star Trek nerds with their prizes), then anything goes and stats are pretty much out the window. The only concern is whether or not Joel played all these cards too early on.
One thing I think is interesting is that our lowest days aren't as low as Veronica Mars and Reading Rainbow had, so we've had our chin up quite a bit.
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Post by Diet Kolos on Nov 29, 2015 16:52:46 GMT -5
I think we're going to end up with enough for 10 episodes. ~$4.7M.
Another thing to consider is that the money raised via MST3K.com and the digital-only rewards should reduce the amount of final money going to Kickstarter and the cost of physical rewards, which should increase the amount of money going as solely to episode production, making getting to 12 episodes a little more attainable.
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Post by citizensmurf on Nov 29, 2015 16:55:49 GMT -5
So, if the current push to $3.3M ends tomorrow at midnight PST (34 hours from now), and we are $144K away from that goal....we would need an average of $4235/hour to reach that goal.
So far, the numbers have been slowly crawling up, so not sure if that is still realistic. Personally, I know I'm maxed out on my pledges.
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Torgo
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Post by Torgo on Nov 29, 2015 17:01:01 GMT -5
At the rate we're going it seems unlikely. It probably depends on how much traffic is steered in by the pending castmember announcement that we're beingn led to believe is coming tomorrow.
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Post by jaybird3rd on Nov 29, 2015 17:07:46 GMT -5
Tomorrow is indeed the day when Joel will reportedly reveal the new Henchman. (I thought he shared this in one of his announcements, but I can't seem to find it just now.)
Jonah Ray was asked (in his MSTieCast interview) whether his character on the show is a descendant of Joel or Mike, and he said that he wasn't ... "but there is some stuff that's going to be announced soon that will be awesome and blow you guys away ... it has something to do with that other silhouette [the Henchman] ... when I found out about it, I couldn't stop rejoicing and laughing. You're going to hear about it and you're going to go, 'perfect!'"
So clearly, they've been saving something big (and I thought it was intriguing that Jonah chose to share that tidbit of information in that particular context). Every other casting announcement has lead to some kind of bump, and most of those were already known in advance. They've kept this one very close to the vest, so it's impossible to predict what kind of impact that will have on the numbers.
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Post by BoB3K on Nov 29, 2015 17:39:14 GMT -5
not including the first two days is a discredit to those backers themselves. Huh? I'm not discrediting anything. I'm saying it was a one time thing and should not be used to try and predict future averages. (BTW, I was one of those first day backers and my $1000 is in that big number.)
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Post by BoB3K on Nov 29, 2015 17:42:02 GMT -5
I think we're going to fall short of the twelve via Kickstarter, but I think we'll get them all anyway... I kind of feel this way too. I feel like there has been enough interest shown, and the money for the initial set and prop builds is in place. It would almost be silly for Shout/Joel/etc. to not somehow follow through with a full season and try and push this forward into a full revival and not a one-off thing.
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Post by SoCalChevy on Nov 29, 2015 17:51:04 GMT -5
Tomorrow is indeed the day when Joel will reportedly reveal the new Henchman. (I thought he shared this in one of his announcements, but I can't seem to find it just now.) Jonah Ray was asked (in his MSTieCast interview) whether his character on the show is a descendant of Joel or Mike, and he said that he wasn't ... "but there is some stuff that's going to be announced soon that will be awesome and blow you guys away ... it has something to do with that other silhouette [the Henchman] ... when I found out about it, I couldn't stop rejoicing and laughing. You're going to hear about it and you're going to go, 'perfect!'"So clearly, they've been saving something big (and I thought it was intriguing that Jonah chose to share that tidbit of information in that particular context). Every other casting announcement has lead to some kind of bump, and most of those were already known in advance. They've kept this one very close to the vest, so it's impossible to predict what kind of impact that will have on the numbers. Maybe the henchman is supposed to be related to Joel or Mike?
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