Post by BoB3K on Apr 29, 2021 13:09:53 GMT -5
That other thread has lots going on, I though I'd start a separate.
So, the last 48 surge. I'm sure there will be one. I think there is always one for successful kickstarters. But, what exactly will it be?
Let's start with some stats. First, let's expand it to 36 hours, cuz that's when the surge started last time (at least the way kicktraq tracks it with midnight eastern cutoffs). The total at the that time was around $4.2 million and it got another $1.5 million to end it. But, I think there's another important stat to take into account--the first 36, which for the first kickstarter was oddly also $1.5 million.
So, the first kickstarter made $3 million in its kickoff and end surges--over half it's money.
Moving to the new KS, this time around, the kickoff was even bigger-- ~ $2.4 million!! (first 3 days per kicktraq)
So, I guess one prediction could be that it will also make $2.4 million to end it. Assuming we'll be about $4 million going into it, that would be a total of $6.4 million!
...but I think that would be a bad guess. There's actually less backers this time around (and the margin is growing every day).
But first, let's assume we'll be the same as last time, but because of wider exposure more people pledge up front, and the total will still be around $3 million, so minus the $2.2 we get $800K. So final total, $4.8 million. That's an interesting look, and actually seems like a reasonable guess.
Except for the whole thing about less backers this time. So you'll notice the end surge isn't just in money but backers. There could be a surge in backers at the end like last time, but it very well will be less, just like it has through the whole campaign. The number of backers in the first 3 days of the initial KS was nearly 14000 backers! This time it was also 14K. Hmm. So maybe the surge will be the same. Maybe it will be $2.2 and that first guess wasn't so bad.
But I still feel (and so maybe we're getting into feels now and not numbers) that this second KS has dwindled ever since the beginning surge. I feel like there are going to be less backers on the back end and less money. Less even than the $800K mentioned for guess 2. My gut says that the end surge will be muted like the rest of this KS and they'll pull in somewhere below $500K. This still puts the end total around $4.4 million. I think it will be close. I also think that the hardcores won't let it end below the 4.4 goal if it's anywhere close. They will sell their firstborns to up their pledges enough. I know that sounds mean, but man, go read some of the KS comment section. Yikes.
Oh, I guess I forgot the simplest prediction-- it makes $1.5 million just like last time for a total of $5.5 million. Seems too easy.
Thoughts? Other better predictions? Snide comments?
So, the last 48 surge. I'm sure there will be one. I think there is always one for successful kickstarters. But, what exactly will it be?
Let's start with some stats. First, let's expand it to 36 hours, cuz that's when the surge started last time (at least the way kicktraq tracks it with midnight eastern cutoffs). The total at the that time was around $4.2 million and it got another $1.5 million to end it. But, I think there's another important stat to take into account--the first 36, which for the first kickstarter was oddly also $1.5 million.
So, the first kickstarter made $3 million in its kickoff and end surges--over half it's money.
Moving to the new KS, this time around, the kickoff was even bigger-- ~ $2.4 million!! (first 3 days per kicktraq)
So, I guess one prediction could be that it will also make $2.4 million to end it. Assuming we'll be about $4 million going into it, that would be a total of $6.4 million!
...but I think that would be a bad guess. There's actually less backers this time around (and the margin is growing every day).
But first, let's assume we'll be the same as last time, but because of wider exposure more people pledge up front, and the total will still be around $3 million, so minus the $2.2 we get $800K. So final total, $4.8 million. That's an interesting look, and actually seems like a reasonable guess.
Except for the whole thing about less backers this time. So you'll notice the end surge isn't just in money but backers. There could be a surge in backers at the end like last time, but it very well will be less, just like it has through the whole campaign. The number of backers in the first 3 days of the initial KS was nearly 14000 backers! This time it was also 14K. Hmm. So maybe the surge will be the same. Maybe it will be $2.2 and that first guess wasn't so bad.
But I still feel (and so maybe we're getting into feels now and not numbers) that this second KS has dwindled ever since the beginning surge. I feel like there are going to be less backers on the back end and less money. Less even than the $800K mentioned for guess 2. My gut says that the end surge will be muted like the rest of this KS and they'll pull in somewhere below $500K. This still puts the end total around $4.4 million. I think it will be close. I also think that the hardcores won't let it end below the 4.4 goal if it's anywhere close. They will sell their firstborns to up their pledges enough. I know that sounds mean, but man, go read some of the KS comment section. Yikes.
Oh, I guess I forgot the simplest prediction-- it makes $1.5 million just like last time for a total of $5.5 million. Seems too easy.
Thoughts? Other better predictions? Snide comments?
