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Post by BoB3K on Oct 26, 2023 11:00:33 GMT -5
Well it would be one thing if it was just as simple as renewing the season pass for $85, but they need quite a bit more money than just renewing the season pass, evidently. .... Perhaps if they had approached this as a mass "Hey everyone, its time to renew your season pass at a cost of $85. It'll only be enough to fund 3 or 4 episodes, but if you want more you can at the same time buy some extras in this fundraiser." it would have avoided some of the burnout we're seeing amongst a portion of the fans. Yeah, I've had this exact thought overnight. There really is nothing wrong with announcing a season pass pre-order system, and even stating outright, "hey guys, we need this many preorders to make this many eps." And you know all those shirts could just be from a MST3K swag store that they open, and again just state outright, "Hey guys here's some merch. We really need to sell some to start funding a new season." I think Joel may have messed up this time.
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Post by BoB3K on Oct 26, 2023 11:04:15 GMT -5
I don't wanna steal DKs thunder, but it's noon, so I took a snapshot -- $874,970 via 4666 backers = $187.50 per
...
1) $770,261 via 3,958 backers = $194.61 per
2) $104,709 via 708 backers = $147.89 per
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Post by Diet Kolos on Oct 26, 2023 11:06:22 GMT -5
Day 2 Numbers
Total raised on Day 2: $104,634 707 new backers Avg daily pledge: $147.99
Total: $874,895 4,665 backers Avg pledge: $187.54
---------------------- KS2 Day 2 Numbers: $610,691 3,904 backers
KS2 totals thru Day 2: $2,194,799 (33.6% final) 11,791 backers (32.2% final)
Still need another day or so of data to get a better idea, but....
Unless they start announcing major stuff, or the strike ends soon and the stars can start advertising to their followers and doing media promotion...
That's a very steep climb to 4.8 million.
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Post by Diet Kolos on Oct 26, 2023 11:11:58 GMT -5
Well it would be one thing if it was just as simple as renewing the season pass for $85, but they need quite a bit more money than just renewing the season pass, evidently. .... Perhaps if they had approached this as a mass "Hey everyone, its time to renew your season pass at a cost of $85. It'll only be enough to fund 3 or 4 episodes, but if you want more you can at the same time buy some extras in this fundraiser." it would have avoided some of the burnout we're seeing amongst a portion of the fans. Yeah, I've had this exact thought overnight. There really is nothing wrong with announcing a season pass pre-order system, and even stating outright, "hey guys, we need this many preorders to make this many eps." And you know all those shirts could just be from a MST3K swag store that they open, and again just state outright, "Hey guys here's some merch. We really need to sell some to start funding a new season." I think Joel may have messed up this time. My general feeling has been that starting with the first tier, all-or-nothing goal being 6 episodes at a very hefty 4.8 million may have been a mistake. They could've done another 3 or 4 episode initial goal. Keep the apparent base goal 800k per episode total and those would've been 2.4 million or 3.2 million benchmarks, respectively. I'm sure they have their reasons for starting at 6, but that's a very big # just to get the initial tier.
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Post by BoB3K on Oct 26, 2023 11:12:28 GMT -5
Hey, there's DK, I was a minute too impatient. The first KS took 3 days to taper off, but then, it was brand new and took more time for news to spread. KS2, tapered after only 2 days, and I see this one doing the same, if not more so, since there's really no news to spread. So, yeah, using last time's metrics, they're going to have trouble hitting even the base $4.8 number... ..which by the way...HEY EVERYBODY GOOD NEWS!!! BOB AND DK ARE PREDICTING LOW NUMBERS, SO EXPECT THEM TO SKYROCKET!!
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Post by BoB3K on Oct 26, 2023 11:15:11 GMT -5
Hey DK, maybe you could start adding a projection each day based on last time, so right now, if they are at the 33.6% of final as last time, their current projection would be $2,603,854
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Post by Diet Kolos on Oct 26, 2023 11:17:36 GMT -5
I was going to do something like that after 3 or 4 days, yeah. I just didn't want the swings in projections to be too wild before enough data was built in.
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Post by narsham on Oct 26, 2023 13:06:36 GMT -5
Frequent reader of this forum, and happy with NuMST, so I haven't posted here as starting an argument in a new place online isn't something I want to do.
Like posters here, I had the strong impression that KS2 pitched the Gizmoplex as a replacement for future crowdfunding. Thing is, that whole campaign is still visible on Kickstarter. I went back and took a look at the initial pitch:
"1. MAKE MORE MST3K episodes with a new, sustainable model, that lets you decide how long we should keep going, and lets us bring new episodes directly to you, without depending on a network to distribute or keep renewing us for new seasons.
2. BUILD THE GIZMOPLEX, our own virtual online theater, where we can host frequent live screenings, premieres, and community events – and you can host MST3K watch parties with friends whenever you want. More on that in a minute."
The "new, sustainable model" is a separate item from the Gizmoplex. Joel's explainer (linked from the pledge page) talks about a community theater and hosting live events and says not one word about using subscription fees to pay for future seasons. The "new, sustainable model" is clearly crowdfunding, and not the Gizmoplex (KS2 could hardly be the first example of a new model if the new model was using Gizmoplex subscription fees). And the FAQ answer is pretty clear too:
"Will Gizmoplex membership fund future episodes of MST3K?
Great question! As we reach the end of the first year, we want to see how the Gizmoplex is working out, whether you find it valuable, and whether it's able to generate enough revenue to support making more new episodes of MST3K.
The honest answer is, we don't know yet, but we hope this might become a sustainable alternative, so that we wouldn't need to do a new crowdfunding campaign for each future season, and could just keep making episodes for as long as we have enough members."
They had no clue; ideally they imagined maybe Gizmoplex subscriptions would be high enough that they wouldn't need to do a new crowdfunding campaign. That's not a pitch saying "this will be our last crowdfunding campaign and the Gizmoplex passes will fund us from then on," it's a "it'd be great if we could operate from subscriptions and passes instead of crowdfunding each future season. We won't know until the end of the first year."
I'll also say that, based on the campaign, I expected to have access to the Gizmoplex for 12 months and then have to pay a fee for continued access. Instead, I still have full access from my initial pledge. I do wonder if that's because their platform is so shaky that was easier than cutting us all off, but it's pretty obvious the Gizmoplex wasn't a run-away success and that the big "remote viewing with friends" trends that developed during COVID didn't go very far.
There's lots more posts on KS2 I didn't go through: maybe there's a smoking gun posting that directly states the goal of the Gizmoplex is to eliminate crowdfunding, instead of this bluesky "maybe we can fund episodes through these tickets, and not have to crowdfund," which is a very different framework.
I predict the campaign will lag behind the others unless or until the strike is settled and we get announcements about/from the cast. I also bet that if this happens there will be a 2-3 day surge of pledges. I like nuMST3K and am holding off for a little while myself.
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Post by Diet Kolos on Oct 26, 2023 17:33:43 GMT -5
Update: the campaign crossed the 900k mark.
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Post by Afgncaap5 on Oct 26, 2023 21:35:47 GMT -5
I'm certainly watching with interest! Not in a position to donate myself, at least not yet, like I did last time, but I'll see if that changes as things get closer to the conclusion.
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Post by BoB3K on Oct 26, 2023 23:05:59 GMT -5
I like charts. Here's one I made to track the numbers, like kicktraq would do. I'll update each day after DK puts up the numbers.
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Post by Diet Kolos on Oct 27, 2023 9:54:45 GMT -5
Good job with the chart.
Thinking a bit more about the whole "situation" with this campaign...
It seems to me, so far, that this campaign lacks a real "raison d'être", a real sense of purpose for fans to rally behind.
For KS1, it was bring back a beloved property that had been off the air for a decade and a half. That's self-explanatory.
For KS2, the show was brought back, but then cancelled by mean old Netflix. We're gonna save our show! And we'll build our OWN streaming platform so it can't get cancelled!
For campaign 3...We want to make another season. Ho hum.
They really needed something ELSE.
"Build the MST3K Studio!" "Rebuild the SOL Bridge!" "Fund a Live 35th Anniversary MST3K Reunion Show in Minneapolis!" SOMETHING else to help justify the cost.
Because as it is, its just raising a giant chunk of money, again, to fund a whole season, again. Only more expensive this time.
They might still have that "extra something" up their sleeve, we'll see.
I also wonder if Ivan is working on this campaign. I haven't seen his name yet, and he was Joel's main campaign guy.
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Post by Diet Kolos on Oct 27, 2023 11:00:59 GMT -5
Day 3 Numbers
Total raised on Day 3: $58,090 355 new backers Avg daily pledge: $163.63
Total: $932,985 5020 backers Avg pledge: $185.86
---------------------- KS2 Day 3 Numbers: $205,454 1,404 backers
KS2 totals thru Day 3: $2,400,253 (36% final) 13,195 backers (36% final)
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Post by Diet Kolos on Oct 27, 2023 11:10:05 GMT -5
So now would be a good time for Joel & Co. to do a campaign update with some substance. Raise the excitement. Because the trend isn't great here.
Although I will point out, KS1 had only raised about a quarter of its final total to this point, and made up quite a bit of pace in the middle and end. But even assuming these first 3 days are only a quarter of the final, its still not enough. Even if it were a 5th of the total it wouldn't quite be enough. They've gotta really kick it into high gear or finish EXTREMELY strong.
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Post by BoB3K on Oct 27, 2023 11:33:40 GMT -5
The first one started off slow because the word had to get out. The 2nd one, there were already mailing lists and stuff. So, by that logic this one will taper at least as quick because everyone that is still interested in MST3K and backed KS2 or is in the gizmoplex knew about it on day 1.
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