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Post by Diet Kolos on Apr 8, 2021 10:24:11 GMT -5
I can't recall the exact arc of the first campaign, but in the end they raised $5,764,229 from 48,270 backers. I know there was a big push at certain points, but I'd be curious if anyone can compare the progress of this new KS to the first one. They're starting much, much quicker. First campaign only had about 800k the first day. This one nearly doubled it at 1.58 million. The first day of the first campaign had 6800 backers. This one had 7900 the first day. So almost twice as much in avg pledge, prob due to more expensive tiers, is helping with a very quick start. Avg pledge is still falling, last check around 191.50 per, which is to be expected as more casual backers come in, especially after it gets funded. We won't have a concrete idea of what the final amounts will be until probably day 4. But the quick start and higher avg pledge have convinced me it'll probably be above my original 3.5 million estimate. Probably closer to 4-4.5 million, but again, need to wait a day or 2 to really tell.
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Post by BoB3K on Apr 8, 2021 10:27:45 GMT -5
That straight average is probably misleading, because a lot of these early core backers are getting the big KS rewards. What we need is mean, but that would be very time consuming. Someone (with too much time on their hands) should go and pull off all the pledges above either that $250 or $350 pledge.
right now, the 250 has 1054 the 350 has 681 the 400 has 41
So, it looks like above the 350 is where you start getting into the hardcore KS reward seekers. So removing all above 350 would probably give a better per backer average.
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Post by BoB3K on Apr 8, 2021 10:30:27 GMT -5
For a quick stab at the mean value, you can just look at the backers of each level --and so that would be the $100 currenlty at 3558 backers or about 1/3 of all backers.
So, right now, the per backer mean is probably more like $100.
Which actually puts it right with last time -- $5 mil from 50K backers.
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Post by citizensmurf on Apr 8, 2021 10:32:18 GMT -5
That is interesting to see, thanks for sharing. Yeah, the second last day had a huge spike in backers for the first KS. I remember watching the live stream, and it feeling like an old TV telethon.
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Post by BoB3K on Apr 8, 2021 10:35:55 GMT -5
Once it gets funded there's going to be some people jumping on the bandwagon to get swag. This can go both ways though. If they flatline anywhere at $3 mil or below, you could also see people pulling out if it looks like there's only going to be 3 eps made. You also get people pulling out in the last minute normally. I think there's some writeups of this around the internet. I don't know how Joel and Co. are going to keep excitement up for 30 days like they did the last time. All the cast js known. Unless they drop a big bomb, like Mike being involved, I don't know what kind of legs this has. I agree. It really wasn't even the little updates as they went, it was that last silly live streaming telethon they did. I'm sure Joel has something like that planned again, but will it work this time? I wouldn't bet on it. ... ...but then i wouldn't bet against it, as I was sure this KS was going to fizzle and it hasn't done that at all yet.
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Post by Diet Kolos on Apr 8, 2021 10:45:50 GMT -5
Once it gets funded there's going to be some people jumping on the bandwagon to get swag. This can go both ways though. If they flatline anywhere at $3 mil or below, you could also see people pulling out if it looks like there's only going to be 3 eps made. You also get people pulling out in the last minute normally. I think there's some writeups of this around the internet. I don't know how Joel and Co. are going to keep excitement up for 30 days like they did the last time. All the cast js known. Unless they drop a big bomb, like Mike being involved, I don't know what kind of legs this has. I agree. It really wasn't even the little updates as they went, it was that last silly live streaming telethon they did. I'm sure Joel has something like that planned again, but will it work this time? I wouldn't bet on it. ... ...but then i wouldn't bet against it, as I was sure this KS was going to fizzle and it hasn't done that at all yet. They've done this before to great effect, pulling out the big surprises during the lulls so that people don't pull out. Last time it was the cast announcements, Felicia Day and Patton, etc, then the cameos. So they need SOMETHING during the lulls this time. I'm looking forward to seeing what they are. Also, if I HAD to guestimate at this point, I'd say the avg pledge is going to end up around $135-150 due to pledge levels being 15-20% higher this time. Lower if they stallout between 3.3 and 4.4 million. Regardless, like elections, it'll all depend on the turnout. They got 48k+ the first time. I'd be very impressed if they got that very near that level again. But, again, I need a few more days and more info released on the KS itself to make any real assumptions.
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Post by comedyc on Apr 8, 2021 11:17:01 GMT -5
I've learned something. It's that most people who watched The Return really liked it, and those same people do not talk about The Return online. If they had, we would have expected $2 million on Day 2. Netflix, who needs ya? This is easily hitting the 5.5.
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Post by Megalon on Apr 8, 2021 11:27:40 GMT -5
I know there was a big push at certain points, but I'd be curious if anyone can compare the progress of this new KS to the first one. This one is beginning a lot faster. The first one was only close to $1 million after 24 hours. I think it generally slowed down after the first 24 hours outside of the few big pushes. I don't know that having a lot of interest right out of the gate necessarily means that it will do so well long term. I think this group that donated right have been watching Joel or one of the other performers from the new MST3K so of course they want more. But getting more casual fans or people who appreciated the show back in the day will probably be harder this time. Yes. The big difference is that they have a mailing list this time around, which means that tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of people learned about the Kickstarter overnight. There was an e-mail waiting for them in their inbox. 6 years ago, that was not the case. There was no mailing list, which meant that no one knew about the Kickstarter until they heard about it from friends or social media; it took a while for the news to spread. What effect that will have on the long-term, I have no idea. Maybe the fundraising is front-loaded this time around and the amount raised will cap out in a couple days. Or maybe it'll just keep going and going and going... Hard to say. Day 1 has already surpassed my predictions by a lot (I didn't think this Kickstarter would break $1m after 30 days, and it has already done that in less than 24 hours).
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Post by Megalon on Apr 8, 2021 11:33:38 GMT -5
I've learned something. It's that most people who watched The Return really liked it, and those same people do not talk about The Return online. If they had, we would have expected $2 million on Day 2. Netflix, who needs ya? This is easily hitting the 5.5. Yeah, this confuses me too. For all I can see, the MST3k community is dead. ForrestCrow, MST3kInfo, even the MST3k subreddit are all pretty much ghost towns. Do they see some activity? Of course. But you'd never guess that this fanbase could raise $1m overnight based on its online presence.
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Post by Megalon on Apr 8, 2021 11:39:29 GMT -5
I agree. It really wasn't even the little updates as they went, it was that last silly live streaming telethon they did. I'm sure Joel has something like that planned again They've done this before to great effect, pulling out the big surprises during the lulls so that people don't pull out. Last time it was the cast announcements, Felicia Day and Patton, etc, then the cameos. This has me a little worried, since all the celebrity involvement was one of the things that dragged the Reboot down, IMO. Do celebrities bring in more backers? Yes. But they also undermine the show's integrity and its small-town roots. If we learned anything from the last Kickstarter, it's that you shouldn't trade short-term success (a record-breaking Kickstarter!) for long-term success (a quality show that lasts more than 1 and a half seasons).
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Post by Diet Kolos on Apr 8, 2021 11:39:38 GMT -5
I've learned something. It's that most people who watched The Return really liked it, and those same people do not talk about The Return online. If they had, we would have expected $2 million on Day 2. Netflix, who needs ya? This is easily hitting the 5.5. Yeah, this confuses me too. For all I can see, the MST3k community is dead. ForrestCrow, MST3kInfo, even the MST3k subreddit are all pretty much ghost towns. Do they see some activity? Of course. But you'd never guess that this fanbase could raise $1m overnight based on its online presence. Very much this. Even Twitter is very low volume for MST. It didn't trend this time. Half of the most popular posts for the MST3K tag aren't about the Kickstarter. There's clearly a silent majority out there.
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Post by BoB3K on Apr 8, 2021 11:54:59 GMT -5
Yeah, this confuses me too. For all I can see, the MST3k community is dead. ForrestCrow, MST3kInfo, even the MST3k subreddit are all pretty much ghost towns. Do they see some activity? Of course. But you'd never guess that this fanbase could raise $1m overnight based on its online presence. Very much this. Even Twitter is very low volume for MST. It didn't trend this time. Half of the most popular posts for the MST3K tag aren't about the Kickstarter. There's clearly a silent majority out there. I'll just leave this here: youtu.be/XQmKabdArUg?t=224
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Post by majorjoe23 on Apr 8, 2021 11:59:10 GMT -5
They've done this before to great effect, pulling out the big surprises during the lulls so that people don't pull out. Last time it was the cast announcements, Felicia Day and Patton, etc, then the cameos. This has me a little worried, since all the celebrity involvement was one of the things that dragged the Reboot down, IMO. Do celebrities bring in more backers? Yes. But they also undermine the show's integrity and its small-town roots. If we learned anything from the last Kickstarter, it's that you shouldn't trade short-term success (a record-breaking Kickstarter!) for long-term success (a quality show that lasts more than 1 and a half seasons). If they do any celebrities, I would hope it would be fewer, and used to greater effect. A Mark Hammill return as P.T. Mindslap would be a big name. Jack Black had been announced as some kind of space pirate or something, which I wouldn't mind seeing. Lin Manuel Miranda had talked about wanting to write a song on Twitter, I'd be down for that (he wouldn't need to show up, let Felicia and Jonah handle the song). I kind of hope there will be a big push using appearances by original cast members, especially if Joel can get Mike, Trace and Frank back.
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Post by Diet Kolos on Apr 8, 2021 12:05:11 GMT -5
~1.9 million, ~10k backers, avg pledge is $189.74
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Post by BoB3K on Apr 8, 2021 12:25:41 GMT -5
Kickstarter is fascinating and scary.
If you look at the bottom 6 pledges, they are all sold out -- here they are in reverse order and the totals
# amount total $ ------------------------- 3 20000 60000 6 7500 45000 10 5000 50000 5 3500 17500 250 500 125000 ---------------------- 274 36500 297500
That's right, 274 people have pledged $300K to this.
And, that doesn't include some of the crazy Producer bids at the bottom. They are not sold out, but lets add those in. Lets add in all the tiers of 1000 or more (and so remove that 250 x $500 one while we're at it)--
# amount total $ ------------------------- 3 20000 60000 6 7500 45000 10 5000 50000 5 3500 17500 1 25000 25000 2 25000 50000 8 6000 48000 1 5500 5500 2 4000 8000 45 2500 112500 11 1250 13750 38 1000 38000 ---------------------- 132 473250
132 people have pledge close to half a million dollars. That's like 25% of the total from 132 people, or a little more than 1% of the backers.
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